2 results for Anderson, J.

  • The economic impact of eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A benefit-cost analysis

    Jones, B. A.; Rich, K. M.; Mariner, J. C.; Anderson, J.; Jeggo, M.; Thevasagayam, S.; Cai, Y.; Peters, A. R.; Roeder, P.

    Journal article
    Lincoln University

    Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the conomic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.

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  • OGLE-2005-BLG-071Lb, the Most Massive M Dwarf Planetary Companion?

    Christie, G.W.; Gaudi, B.S.; Kubiak, M.; Szymanski, M.K.; Pietrzynski, G.; Soszynski, I.; Szewczyk, O.; Ulaczyk, K.; Wyrzykowski, L.; Fox, D.B.; Gal-Yam, A.; Han, C.; Lepine, S.; McCormick, J.; Ofek, E.; Park, B.G.; Pogge, R.W.; Abe, F.; Bennett, D.P.; Bond, I.A.; Britton, T.R.; Gilmore, A.C.; Hearnshaw, J.B.; Itow, Y.; Kamiya, K.; Kilmartin, P.M.; Korpela, A.; Masuda, K.; Matsubara, Y.; Motomura, M.; Muraki, Y.; Nakamura, S.; Ohnishi, K.; Okada, C.; Rattenbury, N.; Saito, T.; Sako, T.; Sasaki, M.; Sullivan, D.; Sumi, T.; Tristram, P.J.; Yanagisawa, T.; Yock, P.C.M.; Yoshoika, T.; Beaulieu, J.P.; Brillant, S.; Calitz, H.; Cassan, A.; Cook, K.H.; Coutures, C.; Dieters, S.; Prester, D.D.; Donatowicz, J.; Fouque, P.; Greenhill, J.; Hill, K.; Hoffman, M.; Horne, K.; Jaroszynski, M.; Dong, S.; Albrow, M.D.; Gould, A.; DePoy, D.L.; Udalski, A.; Anderson, J. (2009)

    Journal Articles
    University of Canterbury Library

    We combine all available information to constrain the nature of OGLE-2005-BLG-071Lb, the second planet discovered by microlensing and the first in a high-magnification event. These include photometric and astrometric measurements from Hubble Space Telescope, as well as constraints from higher order effects extracted from the ground-based light curve, such as microlens parallax, planetary orbital motion and finite-source effects. Our primary analysis leads to the conclusion that the host of Jovian planet OGLE-2005-BLG-071Lb is an M dwarf in the foreground disk with mass M= 0.46 +/- 0.04 Msun, distance D_l = 3.3 +/- 0.4 kpc, and thick-disk kinematics v_LSR ~ 103 km/s. From the best-fit model, the planet has mass M_p = 3.8 +/- 0.4 M_Jup, lies at a projected separation r_perp = 3.6 +/- 0.2 AU from its host and so has an equilibrium temperature of T ~ 55 K, i.e., similar to Neptune. A degenerate model less favored by \Delta\chi^2 = 2.1 (or 2.2, depending on the sign of the impact parameter) gives similar planetary mass M_p = 3.4 +/- 0.4 M_Jup with a smaller projected separation, r_\perp = 2.1 +/- 0.1 AU, and higher equilibrium temperature T ~ 71 K. These results from the primary analysis suggest that OGLE-2005-BLG-071Lb is likely to be the most massive planet yet discovered that is hosted by an M dwarf. However, the formation of such high-mass planetary companions in the outer regions of M-dwarf planetary systems is predicted to be unlikely within the core-accretion scenario. There are a number of caveats to this primary analysis, which assumes (based on real but limited evidence) that the unlensed light coincident with the source is actually due to the lens, that is, the planetary host. However, these caveats could mostly be resolved by a single astrometric measurement a few years after the event.

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