100 results for Working or discussion paper, 2005

  • A new approach to course revision: Applying critical questions and a philosophical framework to a revision of 71254 Electronic Commerce.

    Natanasabapathy, P. (2005)

    Working or discussion paper
    Open Polytechnic

    This study investigates how 71254 Electronic Commerce fits in with Susan Toohey's (1999) framework of philosophical approaches and the fundamental aspects of course design. It analyses the influence of various factors on the design and delivery of the course and discusses the groundwork carried out as part of the revision for this course at The Open Polytechnic Of New Zealand. The study has enabled the author to take a holistic and systematic approach to course revision through gaining a deeper understanding of the course from a course design perspective. The knowledge gained has enabled the author to make rational strategic decisions about course enhancements, as opposed to doing ad-hoc updates that may not have enhanced student learning. Furthermore, this approach was useful for an understanding of the course's position within the institution's programmes and industry requirements, and it helped to justify the reasons for the course revision changes. While this study focuses on electronic commerce, this approach can be applied to the revision of any course and aspects of this approach could improve the course revision process.

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  • Turing's test, Searle's Chinese room argument, and thinking machines.

    Jackson, P. (2005)

    Working or discussion paper
    Open Polytechnic

    This paper deals with the debate on artificial intelligence (AI) thinking machines. In particular, it asks the question, 'Do AI machines think as we humans do?' The main thrust of this paper is philosophical and does not directly deal with technological platforms for AI. After a brief history of AI, there follows a discussion on the work of Alan Turing, in particular that on his logical computing machine (LCM), his thesis (also Church's), his paper in Mind, covering the 'Imitation Game', and the Turing test, which arose out of it. Turing is seen as the founder of the strong AI hypothesis (machines can think). The work of John Searle is then covered as it relates to this debate. Under particular discussion are Searle's Chinese Room experiment (CRE) and the Chinese Room argument (CRA) that arose from it, in which he attempts to refute the strong AI viewpoint and provide support for his alternative weak AI hypothesis (machines cannot think). The consideration of Searle's work leads to a discussion of issues critical to Searle's view, that of syntax versus semantics, and of intentionality. After a comment on artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a potential technological platform for thinking machines, there follows a discussion on the relationship between AI, thinking and consciousness, in an attempt to clarify what is meant by these terms in relation to the debate addressed here. Finally, a summary is made and tentative conclusions are reached, in which the following views are offered: - The strong AI position is invalid, at least for von Neumann-type machines. However, the weak AI position is valid in so far as such machines can, and currently do, emulate human thinking. - While ANNs provide a potential technological platform for thinking machines, the technology is too nascent as yet. - If truly thinking machines ever do become a reality, their existence will raise a number of challenges, such as our ethical responsibility toward them (as sentient entities) and the threat to us as a species that they might represent.

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  • Bridging the gap between the Model-Driven Architecture and ontology engineering

    Cranefield, Stephen; Pan, Jin (2005-12)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Please note that there is a revised version of this paper available at http://hdl.handle.net/10523/1260 (currently in press with the International Journal of Human-Computer Studies).

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  • Valuing real options using implied binomial trees and commodity futures options

    Arnold, Tom; Crack, Timothy; Schwartz, Adam (2005-01-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    The full text of this document is only available from the Social Science Research Network. Please use the related link to access the full text.

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  • Foreign exchange exposure of U.S. firms in the Pacific rim

    Zhang, Lifan; Crack, Timothy (2005-06-23)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    The full text of this document is only available from the Social Science Research Network. Please use the related link to access the full text.

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  • The volatility of aid

    Fielding, David; Mavrotas, George (2005-06)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Issues related to the volatility of aid flows are now becoming crucial in view of their relevance to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The paper examines aid volatility using data for 66 aid recipients over the period 1973-2002. We improve upon earlier work in this important area by disaggregating total aid inflows into sector and programme aid. In this way we avoid focussing on a single aggregate, unlike most previous studies on aid volatility. We also adopt a different methodology to capture aid volatility. The institutional quality of the aid recipient affects the stability of sector aid but not that of programme assistance. Moreover, more open economies, which tend to be smaller and richer, ceteris paribus, are associated with more volatile sector aid flows.

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  • Asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy: the case of South Africa

    Fielding, David; Shields, Kalvinder (2005-08)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    PPP is unlikely to hold instantaneously for all commodities across the different regions of a monetary area. It is therefore possible that monetary expansions or contractions will have different effects in different regions, if there are regional asymmetries in the monetary transmission mechanism. We estimate the size of such asymmetries across the nine provinces of South Africa over the period 1997-2005. There are large and statistically significant differences in the response of prices to monetary expansions and contractions.

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  • "An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth." A study of political violence and counter-insurgency in Egypt

    Fielding, David; Shortland, Anja (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    This paper analyses a newly collected time-series database measuring the dimensions of violent political conflict in Egypt. Attention is focused on the interaction between politically motivated attacks by Islamists and the counter-insurgency measures used by the Egyptian government. The intensity of security force activities responds immediately to all kinds of Islamist violence, regardless of the target of the attack. However, there are significant asymmetries in the way that the different forms of Islamist violence respond to the different security force activities.

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  • Liberating Middle Earth: how will changes in the global trading system affect New Zealand?

    Winchester, Niven (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Trade liberalisation has gained momentum in recent decades due to the increased popularity of free trade areas and the continued progress of multilateral liberalisation via the World Trade Organisation (WTO). We analyse how likely changes in the global trading environment will influence New Zealand – a small, relatively open economy with a comparative advantage in the world’s most protected sector – using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global production and trade. We find that most bilateral free trade agreements have a small but positive impact on New Zealand welfare and multilateral trade liberalisation generates significant benefits for New Zealand.

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  • Demographic change and transport needs in the Waikato region

    Baxendine, Sandra; Cochrane, William; Poot, Jacques (2005-09)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    This report has been commissioned by Environment Waikato (EW) as part of its review of the Land Transport Strategy for the Waikato region. The report identifies key population characteristics that impact on transport needs of the EW region and the constituent Territorial Authority (TA) areas. In this context, vulnerable locations and populations are identified. Future trends for the EW region and sub-regions are assessed by means of low, medium and high population growth scenarios, and the implications of the projected changes in population size and composition for transport needs are identified. A general theme throughout this report is that in many respects demographic change in the Waikato region is not that different from that in New Zealand as a whole, but there are sharp differences between the constituent TA areas. The report covers changes in population size and structure, ethnic structure, the labour force, income, housing tenure and motor vehicle ownership, deprivation and projections of locally generated trips, the number of motor vehicles and travel to work flows. It is noted that a comprehensive assessment of transport need should embed demographic change into an integrated model of economic change in the region, combined with scenarios relating to external factors and policy changes.

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  • Description and spatial analysis of employment change in New Zealand regions 1986-2001

    Baxendine, Sandra; Cochrane, William; Poot, Jacques (2005-11)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    Over the last two decades New Zealand has undergone fundamental economic restructuring, and phases of slow and rapid growth, which have resulted in some dramatic changes in the regional economies. This paper provides a detailed multiperiod shift-share analysis over three intercensal periods between 1986 and 2001 on changes in regional employment outcomes at two levels of spatial disaggregation: 29 Administrative Regions (ARs), based on Regional Council areas, and 58 Labour Market Areas (LMAs) that have economically meaningful (commuting determined) boundaries. The contributions to employment outcomes of national trends, sectoral composition within regions, structural change, and local conditions are identified. A four-category disaggregation of regional employment into sex, age, occupation and industry is also undertaken. The results show a dichotomy between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, but also several distinct clusters among the latter. Regional competitive advantage is clearly linked with net inward migration. There is also evidence of significantly positive spatial autocorrelation in the competitive effect. Local indicators of spatial association help to identify regions that stand out in terms of being surrounded by similar regions, or by regions that are just the opposite, in terms of the competitive effect. Interestingly, regional population growth precedes the competitive component of employment growth rather than just being a symptom of it.

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  • An intertemporally-consistent and arbitrage-free version of the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models

    Krippner, Leo (2005-02)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    This article derives a generic, intertemporally-consistent, and arbitrage-free version of the popular class of yield curve models originally introduced by Nelson and Siegel (1987). The derived model has a theoretical foundation (conferred via the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework) that allows it to be used in applications that involve an implicit or explicit time-series context. As an example of the potentialapplication of the model, the intertemporal consistency is exploited to derive a theoretical time-series process that may be used to forecast the yield curve. The empirical application of the forecasting framework to United States data results in out-of-sample forecasts that outperform the random walk over a sample period of almost 50 years, for forecast horizons ranging from six months to three years.

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  • Investigating the relationships between the yield curve, output and inflation using an arbitrage-free version of the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models

    Krippner, Leo (2005-02)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    This article provides a theoretical economic foundation for the popular Nelson and Siegel (1987) class of yield curve models (which has been absent up to now). This foundation also offers a new framework for investigating and interpreting the relationships between the yield curve, output and inflation that have already been well-established empirically in the literature. Specifically, the level of the yield curve as measured by the VAO model is predicted to have a cointegrating relationship with inflation, and the shape of the yield curve as measured by the VAO model is predicted to correspond to the profile (that is, timing and magnitude) of future changes in the output gap (that is, output growth less the growth in potential output). These relationships are confirmed in the empirical analysis on 50 years of United States data.

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  • Attributing returns and optimising United States swaps portfolios using an intertemporally-consistent and arbitrage-free model of the yield curve

    Krippner, Leo (2005-03)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    This paper uses the volatility-adjusted orthonormalised Laguerre polynomial model of the yield curve (the VAO model) from Krippner (2005), an intertemporally-consistent and arbitrage-free version of the popular Nelson and Siegel (1987) model, to develop a multi-dimensional yield-curve-based risk framework for fixed interest portfolios. The VAO model is also used to identify relative value (i.e. potential excess returns) from the universe of securities that define the yield curve. In combination, these risk and return elements provide an intuitive framework for attributing portfolio returns ex-post, and for optimising portfolios ex-ante. The empirical applications are to six years of daily United States interest rate swap data. The first application shows that the main sources of fixed interest portfolio risk (i.e. unanticipated variability in ex-post returns) are first-order (‘duration’) effects from stochastic shifts in the level and shape of the yield curve; second-order (‘convexity’) effects and other contributions are immaterial. The second application shows that fixed interest portfolios optimised ex-ante using the VAO model risk/relative framework significantly outperform a naive evenly-weighted benchmark over time.

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  • Health, wealth, fertility, education and inequality

    Fielding, David; Torres, Sebastian (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    This paper uses a new cross-country dataset to estimate the strength of the links between different dimensions of social and economic development, including indicators of health, fertility and education as well as material wellbeing. The paper differs from previous studies in employing data for different income groups in each country in order to provide direct evidence on factors driving inequality, and in using a unique measure of material wellbeing that does not rely on PPP comparisons.

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  • Pioneering advantage and product-country image: evidence from China

    Gao, Hongzhi; Knight, John G (2005)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    A later version of this paper has been published in the Journal of Marketing Management.

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  • Asset ownership and foreign-market entry

    Raff, Horst; Ryan, Michael; Stähler, Frank (2005-12)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    This paper examines the link between a firm’s owership of productive assets and its choice of foreign-market entry strategy. We find that, controlling for industry- and country-specific characteristics, the most productive firms (i.e., those owning the most assets) will enter through greenfield investment, less productive ones will choose M&A, and the least productive ones will export. In addition, the most productive firms are shown to prefer whole ownership to a joint venture. These predictions are confirmed in an econometric analysis of Japanese firm-level data.

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  • A model of outsourcing and foreign direct investment

    Stähler, Frank (2005-12)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    This paper presents a model in which two firms may use foreign direct investment or outsourcing in order to reduce the production cost of an intermediate input. Outsourcing requires training which is costly and creates a positive spillover. The paper shows that the equilibrium depends on the level of training costs. If they are high, only bilateral outsourcing is possible in equilibrium. If bilateral outsourcing is incomplete, it will not change prices compared to no outsourcing. If they are low, only complete outsourcing is possible. If complete outsourcing is unilateral (bilateral), the price increases (decreases) with the degree of spillovers.

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  • Framework for intrusion detection inspired by the immune system

    Middlemiss, Melanie (2005-07)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    The immune system is a complex and distributed system. It provides a multilevel form of defence, capable of identifying and reacting to harmful pathogens that it does not recognise as being part of its “self”. The framework proposed in this paper incorporates a number of immunological principles, including the multilevel defence and the cooperation between cells in the adaptive immune system. It is proposed that this approach could be used to provide a high level of intrusion detection, while minimising the level of false negative detections.

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  • Skill classification and the effects of trade on wage inequality

    Winchester, Niven; Greenaway, David; Reed, Geoffrey V (2005-12)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    The extent to which rising wage inequality in developed nations can be attributed to increased North-South trade has been a contentious issue over the last 20 years or so. We contribute to the debate by outlining a new skill classification method and evaluating the link between trade and wages using an economy-wide model. Our skill classification considers both academic and vocational qualifications and uses cluster methods to group together occupations with similar skill characteristics.

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