3 results for Fielding, David, Shortland, Anja, Working or discussion paper

  • What Explains Changes in the Level of Abuse Against Civilians during the Peruvian Civil War?

    Fielding, David; Shortland, Anja (2010-05-01)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Using a new monthly time-series data set, we explore the factors associated with variations in the number of civilians killed or wounded by participants in the civil war in Peru during the 1980s and 1990s. We find that an increase in the level of abuse by one side is strongly associated with subsequent increases in the level of abuse by the other. Certain types of foreign intervention have a large and statistically significant impact on the level of abuse; some types of intervention raise the level of violence, but others reduce it.

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  • Are Americans more gung-ho than Europeans? Evidence from tourism in Israel during the Intifada

    Fielding, David; Shortland, Anja (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Analysis of cross-sectional data on tourism to Israel during the Intifada reveals some factors driving international tourist behaviour. Much of the heterogeneity in the observed response of different nationalities can be explained by socioeconomic characteristics, some of which suggest differences in attitudes towards the risk associated with violence in Israel. Analysis of time-series data reveals the importance of different dimensions of violence in explaining tourism decline, distinguishing between violence affecting perceptions of risk and violence that might influence tourists with strong political views. We also see why variations in conflict intensity are more important than variations in road accidents.

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  • "An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth." A study of political violence and counter-insurgency in Egypt

    Fielding, David; Shortland, Anja (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    This paper analyses a newly collected time-series database measuring the dimensions of violent political conflict in Egypt. Attention is focused on the interaction between politically motivated attacks by Islamists and the counter-insurgency measures used by the Egyptian government. The intensity of security force activities responds immediately to all kinds of Islamist violence, regardless of the target of the attack. However, there are significant asymmetries in the way that the different forms of Islamist violence respond to the different security force activities.

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