15 results for Fielding, David, Working or discussion paper, 2000

  • Inflation Volatility and Economic Development: Evidence from Nigeria

    Fielding, David (2008)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    We use monthly time-series data on the prices of 96 individual products in the 37 states of Nigeria to analyze the factors that drive inflation volatility. Among the significant determinants of volatility are average inflation rates, transport and communication infrastructure, consumer access to credit markets and urbanization. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across products in the relative importance of these factors.

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  • Aid and Dutch Disease in the South Pacific

    Fielding, David (2007-02)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    The impact of aid inflows on relative prices and output is ambiguous. Aid inflows that increase domestic expenditure are likely to cause real exchange rate appreciation, ceteris paribus. However, if this expenditure raises the capital stock in the traded goods sector, then output in this sector might not contract, at least in the steady state. Moreover, if investment in the nontraded goods sector is relatively high and/or productive, then there is not necessarily any real exchange rate appreciation in the steady state. We use time-series data to examine the impact of aid inflows on output and real exchange rates in ten South Pacific island states, and find aid inflows to produce a variety of outcomes in economies of different kinds.

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  • What causes changes in opinion about the Israeli-Palestinian peace process?

    Fielding, David; Penny, Madeline (2006-03)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    In this paper we present a statistical analysis of the factors that drive monthly variations in the aggregate level of support among Israeli Jews for the Oslo Peace Process. Attitudes depend on both the state of the Israeli economy and the intensity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since the onset of the Intifada. Moreover, different dimensions of the conflict have very different effects on Jewish public opinion. In particular, there is substantial heterogeneity in the response of attitudes to conflict events on either side of the Green Line.

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  • Measuring aid effectively in tests of aid effectiveness

    Fielding, David; Knowles, Stephen (2007-03)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    In the extensive empirical literature on aid effectiveness, aid is always measured as a share of GDP. However, measuring aid in real dollars per capita is also consistent with standard growth theory. We show that the choice of denominator makes an enormous difference to the sign and significance of coefficients on aid variables in crosscountry panel growth regressions. Our aim is to redirect attention towards the theoretical foundations of the growth literature.

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  • Health Aid and Governance in Developing Countries

    Fielding, David (2008-11-01)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Despite anecdotal evidence that the quality of governance in recipient countries affects the allocation of international health aid, there is no quantitative evidence on the magnitude of this effect, or on which dimensions of governance influence donor decisions. We measure health aid flows over 2001-2005 for 87 aid recipients, matching aid data with measures of different dimensions of governance and a range of country-specific economic and health characteristics. Both corruption and political rights, but not civil rights, have a significant impact on aid. The sensitivity of aid to corruption might be explained by a perception that poor institutions make health aid inefficient. However, even when we allow for variations in the level of corruption, political rights still have a significant impact on aid allocation. This suggests that health aid is sometimes used as an incentive to reward political reforms, even though (as we find) such aid is not fungibile.

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  • Cows and conquistadors: a comment on the colonial origins of comparative development

    Fielding, David; Torres, Sebastian (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Robust estimation of the impact of political institutions on economic development requires the identification of valid instruments for institutional quality. Acemoglu et al. [2001] introduced the use of colonial settler mortality rates as such an instrument. Our paper develops a more eclectic theory of colonial development, and compares the performance of the settler mortality model to alternatives incorporating instruments reflecting the production structure of colonial economies. Ceteris paribus, colonies with a natural comparative advantage in pastoral agriculture were more likely to experience European settlement that led to non-extractive institutions. Some – but not all – of Acemoglu et al.’s conclusions are robust to the use of a wider set of instruments.

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  • "An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth." A study of political violence and counter-insurgency in Egypt

    Fielding, David; Shortland, Anja (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    This paper analyses a newly collected time-series database measuring the dimensions of violent political conflict in Egypt. Attention is focused on the interaction between politically motivated attacks by Islamists and the counter-insurgency measures used by the Egyptian government. The intensity of security force activities responds immediately to all kinds of Islamist violence, regardless of the target of the attack. However, there are significant asymmetries in the way that the different forms of Islamist violence respond to the different security force activities.

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  • Health, wealth, fertility, education and inequality

    Fielding, David; Torres, Sebastian (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    This paper uses a new cross-country dataset to estimate the strength of the links between different dimensions of social and economic development, including indicators of health, fertility and education as well as material wellbeing. The paper differs from previous studies in employing data for different income groups in each country in order to provide direct evidence on factors driving inequality, and in using a unique measure of material wellbeing that does not rely on PPP comparisons.

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  • Information, Institutions and Banking Sector Development in West Africa

    Demetriades, Panicos; Fielding, David (2009-01-01)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Using a new panel dataset for banks in eight West African countries, we explore the factors that exacerbate or alleviate excess liquidity, and the factors that promote or retard the rate of growth of banks’ assets. Loan default rates in the region are high, and variations in the rate impact on liquidity and asset growth. However, the size of this effect is very sensitive to bank age. Some types of improvement in the quality of governance reduce excess liquidity and promote asset growth. However, the impact of other types of improvement, particularly with regard to corruption, is ambiguous. We uncover evidence that provides an explanation for this ambiguity.

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  • The volatility of aid

    Fielding, David; Mavrotas, George (2005-06)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Issues related to the volatility of aid flows are now becoming crucial in view of their relevance to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The paper examines aid volatility using data for 66 aid recipients over the period 1973-2002. We improve upon earlier work in this important area by disaggregating total aid inflows into sector and programme aid. In this way we avoid focussing on a single aggregate, unlike most previous studies on aid volatility. We also adopt a different methodology to capture aid volatility. The institutional quality of the aid recipient affects the stability of sector aid but not that of programme assistance. Moreover, more open economies, which tend to be smaller and richer, ceteris paribus, are associated with more volatile sector aid flows.

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  • Asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy: the case of South Africa

    Fielding, David; Shields, Kalvinder (2005-08)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    PPP is unlikely to hold instantaneously for all commodities across the different regions of a monetary area. It is therefore possible that monetary expansions or contractions will have different effects in different regions, if there are regional asymmetries in the monetary transmission mechanism. We estimate the size of such asymmetries across the nine provinces of South Africa over the period 1997-2005. There are large and statistically significant differences in the response of prices to monetary expansions and contractions.

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  • Regional asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy shocks on prices: Evidence from US cities

    Fielding, David; Shields, Kalvinder (2007-02)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    JEL Classification: E31, E52, R19

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  • Does trust extend beyond the village? Experimental trust and social distance in Cameroon

    Etang, Alvin; Fielding, David; Knowles, Stephen (2009-07-01)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    In this paper we use experimental data collected in rural Cameroon to quantify the effect of social distance on trust and altruism. Our measure of social distance is one that is relevant to everyday economic interactions: subjects in a Trust Game play with fellow villagers or with someone from a different village. We find that Senders in a Trust Game pass significantly more money to Recipients from their own village than to Recipients from a different village. To test for the possibility that Senders are motivated by unconditional kindness, they also play a Triple Dictator Game. We find that Senders pass significantly more money on average in the Trust Game than in the Triple Dictator Game, confirming that transfers in the Trust Game are partly motivated by Trust. However, there is also a social distance effect in the Triple Dictator Game, and around one third of the social distance effect in the Trust Game is due to greater unconditional kindness to fellow villagers. Results from a Risk Game suggest that Trust Game transfers are uncorrelated with attitudes to risk.

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  • Survey Trust, Experimental Trust and ROSCA Membership in Rural Cameroon

    Etang, Alvin; Fielding, David; Knowles, Stephen (2007-11-01)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Broadly speaking, economic experiments and surveys have found trust to be much lower in Africa than in industrialized countries. We analyze new experimental and survey results from rural Cameroon, where the average level of trust appears to be much higher than is typical of Africa. A substantial part of this difference can be explained by the prevalence of Rotating Saving and Credit Associations (ROSCAs) in the area: membership of a common ROSCA is one of the most important factors determining experimental behavior. Correspondingly, responses to the survey questions indicate that villagers have a high degree of trust in people with whom they interact regularly, though not in people in general. There is a significant correlation between the degree of trust exhibited in the game and the degree of trust declared in response to survey questions. However, survey responses do not capture all of the systematic variation in experimental behavior, and understate the importance of ROSCA membership in predicting someone’s propensity to trust others.

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  • Are Americans more gung-ho than Europeans? Evidence from tourism in Israel during the Intifada

    Fielding, David; Shortland, Anja (2005-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Otago

    Analysis of cross-sectional data on tourism to Israel during the Intifada reveals some factors driving international tourist behaviour. Much of the heterogeneity in the observed response of different nationalities can be explained by socioeconomic characteristics, some of which suggest differences in attitudes towards the risk associated with violence in Israel. Analysis of time-series data reveals the importance of different dimensions of violence in explaining tourism decline, distinguishing between violence affecting perceptions of risk and violence that might influence tourists with strong political views. We also see why variations in conflict intensity are more important than variations in road accidents.

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