14 results for Page, S.

  • VOILA! A new measure of oil vulnerability for cities

    Rendall, S.; Page, S.; Krumdieck, S. (2015)

    Conference Contributions - Published
    University of Canterbury Library

    Oil price shocks and supply disruptions have the potential to adversely affect automobile-dependent personal transport systems. This places users at risk if they are unable to access their activities without economic or transport hardship. This research develops a new measure of oil vulnerability, combining spatial data of vehicle fuel use with a novel transport energy-accessibility metric, the Minimum Energy Transport Activity Access characterisation (METAA), overcoming many of the limitations seen in previous studies. The Vulnerability to Oil: Income, Land-Use and Accessibility (VOILA) assessment identifies vulnerable areas as those where residents might lose access to activities during oil price rises as they can neither afford to spend more on fuel nor adapt their travel patterns to reduce consumption. This new metric allows planners to analyse where, how and why residents are vulnerable. Assessing the oil vulnerability of Christchurch, New Zealand, indicated that although the majority of areas are adaptable, residents in most areas are already spending over 10% of their income on transport, leaving the less adaptable areas vulnerable. A comparative mapping exercise highlighted the distribution of vulnerability and identified potential mitigation strategies. The research has important implications for urban and transport planning.

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  • Design and implementation of a community based sustainable development action research method

    Krumdieck, S.; Dale, M.; Page, S. (2012)

    Journal Articles
    University of Canterbury Library

    Local community groups have been forming around taking action on the issues of Peak Oil and Climate Change. People perceive a risk to their security and are alarmed by the lack of action at the government level. Sustainability of local communities, their infrastructure and social assets is a field that should gain as much attention from the engineering professions as green technology. This paper reports the development of the TransitionScape methodology and implementation in a weekend workshop in a rural town in New Zealand. The methodology was designed from first principles of action research and group psychology. The objective of the workshop was to transition the community from a point of fear and concern to a state of action by initiating community-generated projects that mitigate the risk of external un-sustainability. The workshop was a success, with numerous projects resulting from the one weekend. We recommend that Transition Engineering practitioners could deliver this workshop at a reasonable cost to communities around the world.

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  • Retro-analysis of liquid bio-ethanol and bio-diesel in New Zealand

    Krumdieck, S.; Page, S. (2013)

    Journal Articles
    University of Canterbury Library

    This paper uses a new approach of retro-analysis. Typically policy is informed by forward-looking analysis of potential for alternative energy technologies. But historical knowledge of energy and processing requirements and greenhouse effects is more reliable for engineering evaluation of biofuel production systems. This study calculates energy inputs and greenhouse gas emissions for the most ef?cient biomass feedstocks in New Zealand if the policy had been implemented to maximize liquid biofuel production in the year 2004/2005. The study uses existing processing technologies and agricultural statistics. Bioethanol production is calculated from putrescible wastes and starch crops, and biodiesel production from rapeseed, tallow, wood and waste paper. Each production system is further evaluated using measures of land use, energy input, crop production related to the energy product, plus relative measures of ef?ciency and renewability. The research ?ndings are that maximum biofuel production in 2004/2005 would have provided only a few per cent of demand, and would not have reduced dependence on foreign imported oil or exposure to fuel price rise. Finally, we conclude that demand management and ef?ciency are more effective means of meeting policy objectives.

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  • Local Area Transport Energy Evaluation (LATEE), New Zealand Warrant of Fitness Data and VKT Analysis Mapped to Census Unit AreasMethod Description and Validation

    Rendall, S.; Page, S.; Krumdieck, S. (2013)

    Reports
    University of Canterbury Library

    A method to evaluate the household energy use for personal transport and assign that information to geospatial locations has been developed by the Advanced Energy and Material Systems Lab research team at the University of Canterbury. The project was part of the Towards Sustainable Urban Forms (TOTUS) research programme that aims to provide quantitative geospatial information about transportation energy consumption for planning purposes. The Local Area Transportation Energy Evaluation (LATEE) methodology uses data from the Ministry of Transport and Statistics New Zealand to calculate annual vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and assign average values to local census area units.

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  • Curve Advisory Speeds in New Zealand

    Page, S.; Stewart, P.; Gu, J.; Ellis, A.; Henderson, R.; Cenek, P.; Koorey, Glen (2002)

    Reports
    University of Canterbury Library

    This research project investigated the use of curve advisory speed signs in New Zealand. A literature review identified key issues to examine. Current traffic behaviour at the location of curve advisory speed signs was observed in order to determine effectiveness and compliance. Alternative methods for determining curve advisory speeds, using road geometry data or accelerometer-based systems, were compared with ball-bank surveys. The existing criteria and methods used for setting curve advisory speeds in New Zealand were assessed in light of the above findings, and changes suggested.

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  • Risk of energy constrained Activity-transport systems (RECATS)

    Dantas, A.; Krumdieck, S.; Page, S. (2007)

    Conference Contributions - Published
    University of Canterbury Library

    A long-term strategic planning tool called RECATS© is introduced. It explores the link between urban form and susceptibility to fuel shortages in order to quantify a risk factor at a queried year in the future for a given urban form and travel demand configuration. RECATS includes interactive models for global peak in oil production, development scenarios for alternative or bio-fuels, and fuel rationing or supply management. On the transport side, RECATS allows the user to specify the distance, mode, and frequency matrix which has been determined for a given urban form using standard transport modelling. RECATS was applied to a case study in which four different urban development forms for Christchurch, New Zealand were simulated. Results show that all urban forms would lose and/or change trips according to the land use-transport system configuration options, but the risk to activities would be very different for different future cities.

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  • Fuel Retail Management System

    Page, S.; Rendall, S.; Krumdieck, S. (2008)

    Conference Contributions - Published
    University of Canterbury Library

    What will happen when transport fuel supply falls short of demand? If you are a Mechanical Engineer, this is an ideal innovation space, an important situation where a solution does not yet exist. Our conceptgeneration, modelling and design research has yielded a possible new technology allowing business as usual to be that which happens when supply falls short of demand. The Fuel Retail Management System (FRMS) is a novel ICT concept which uses the design elements of allocation market systems to manage constrained fuel supplies – if it is deployed in time.

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  • Transitionscape: Generating Community-Based Sustainable Transport Intiatives

    Dale, M.; Krumdieck, S.; Page, S.; Mulligan, K. (2008)

    Conference Contributions - Published
    University of Canterbury Library

    This paper gives a brief outline of the means by which the TransitionScape methodology, a toolkit for enabling communities to generate viable action towards becoming Transition Towns, can facilitate the development of community based transport initiatives with a particular focus on a case study conducted in Oamaru, New Zealand earlier this year. The method was developed to overcome the five main challenges of sustainability. In this paper we present how it relates to transition of transport infrastructure, technology and behaviour.

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  • Analysis of the truck trip generation characteristics of supermarkets and convenience stores

    Asuncion, J.; Page, S.; Murray, R.; Krumdieck, S. (2012)


    University of Canterbury Library

    Transport engineers and urban planners use truck trip generation as one of the tools to identify the effects of trucks on urban congestion, pollution, safety, and the strain on the road network. Truck trip rates for supermarkets and convenience stores are higher than other retail facilities as they require more frequent and timely movement of goods, particularly perishable items. Supermarkets and convenience stores contribute to significant truck traffic in urban residential areas and thus have high exposure to rising fuel prices. A manual truck count survey was conducted on the supermarkets and convenience stores in one New Zealand town. The main factors influencing truck trip generation rates of the stores are examined such as the physical and operational characteristics of the store and origin of loading of the truck. Correlation analyses are performed on the parameters to determine their influence on the truck trip generation of the stores. Moreover, freight energy consumption and fuel intensity were calculated from the truck type and trip length of the deliveries. The major differences in the distribution patterns of the stores highlighted their differences in their freight energy consumption.

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  • Travel adaptive capacity assessment for particular geographic, demographic and activity cohorts. NZ Transport Agency research report 486

    Krumdieck, S.; Page, S.; Watcharasukarn, M. (2012)

    Reports
    University of Canterbury Library

    Transport infrastructure and network planning must now consider oil shocks and future demand growth for more energy efficient transport modes. However, data and models for this type of fuel reduction planning are not available. Travel adaptive capacity is proposed as a measure of the resilience of travel demand to a reduction in fuel use for personal vehicle trips while not reducing participation in activities. Travel adaptive potential characterises the ways that populations can change modes to reduce fuel use without reducing participation in activities. The travel adaptive capacity assessment (TACA) survey can capture the data needed to assess adaptive capacity and the preferred mode alternatives. The survey asks for the essentiality of each trip and the alternative travel modes currently available. TACA surveys were carried out in Christchurch, Oamaru and Dunedin. Over 550 participants completed the survey in 2008–2010. The survey participant demographics, trip generation and mode data compared well with government data. The report found that for these three South Island centres, some adaptive capacity is possible, with Christchurch participants showing the greatest adaptive capacity. The TACA survey is a useful tool for further research into travel behaviour and mode choice.

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  • An Ecological Planning Approach to Community Based Sustainable Development

    Dale, M.; Krumdieck, S.; Page, S.; Mulligan, K.; Rendall, S. (2008)

    Conference Contributions - Published
    University of Canterbury Library

    This paper outlines a participatory community planning methodology with the aims of (1) providing the facts about Peak Oil, Global Climate Change, Electric Power System, (2) help community members explore their individual and group responses (3) provide a forum to generate projects in the community for sustainable value, resilience and adaptation and (4) stimulate increased community connectivity and the creation of organisational structures appropriate to these challenges This method was trialled at the “Climate Disruption. Transition Towns. One Response” weekend forum organised by the Natural Heritage Society Oamaru for a number of participants from the town of Oamaru, New Zealand and surrounding communities.

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  • Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities

    Krumdieck, S.; Page, S.; Dantas, A. (2010)

    Journal Articles
    University of Canterbury Library

    The issue of a peak in world oil supply has become a mainstream concern over the past several years. The petroleum geology models of post-peak oil production indicate supply declines from 1.5% to 6% per year. Travel requires fuel energy, but current transportation planning models do not include the impacts of constrained fuel supply on private travel demand. This research presents a method to assess the risk to activities due to a constrained fuel supply relative to projected unconstrained travel demand. The method assesses the probability of different levels of fuel supply over a given planning horizon, then calculates impact due to the energy supply not meeting the planning expectations. A new travel demand metric which characterizes trips as essential, necessary, and optional to wellbeing is used in the calculation. A case study explores four different urban forms developed from different future growth options for the urban development strategy of Christchurch, New Zealand to 2041. Probable fuel supply availability was calculated, and the risk to transport activities in the 2041 transport model was assessed. The results showed all the urban forms had significantly reduced trip numbers and lower energy mode distributions from the current planning projections, but the risk to activities differed among the planning options. Density is clearly one of the mitigating factors, but density alone does not provide a solution to reduced energy demand. The method clearly shows how risk to participation in activities is lower for an urban form which has a high degree of human powered and public transport access to multiple options between residential and commercial/industrial/service destinations. This analysis has led to new thinking about adaptation and reorganization of urban forms as a strategy for energy demand reduction rather than just densification.

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  • TACA Sim: a survey for adaptability assessment

    Krumdieck, S.; Watcharasukarn, M.; Page, S. (2010)


    University of Canterbury Library

    Uncertainty of future fuel supplies and a requirement to reduce green house gas emissions are two pressures that may cause significant travel behavior change in the long-term. Understanding how people can change to carry out their activities without using a car; i.e. how adaptable they are, and how this adaptability depends on urban from, will aid local authorities planners and policy makers to develop transport systems and urban forms that are resilient to fuel shortages and high prices.This paper describes TACA Sim online travel survey in which one of the questions was “Could you get to the activity another way” The answer to this question for each trip taken was used to measure the adaptability of the survey participant. The results from a case study of two areas: the city of Christchurch and the small rural town of Oamaru showed that most participants did have another transport mode. Although participants were given the option of participating in the activity without travelling (i.e. working from home) this choice was not a popular alternative. From comparison between two groups, the surveyed group in Oamaru had a lower adaptability than the surveyed group in Christchurch, primarily due to the lack of public transport services in Oamaru. The results from this study are expected to contribute Oamaru authorities in improving local transport services and long-term planning for resilient urban form in the future.

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  • The Minimum Energy Transport Activity Access Model

    Rendall, S.; Krumdieck, S.P.; Page, S.; Reitsma, F.; Van Houten, E. (2010)


    University of Canterbury Library

    A reduction in the energy intensity of private transport is necessary to manage the uncertainties of future availability of oil supplies. The built environment and transport infrastructure of an urban form will determine the extent to which low impact adaptations to these constraints are possible, and hence the resilience of residents to fuel price shocks and constraints. This paper introduces the concept that the underlying geographic form of an urban area and its transport networks is characterised by an Active Mode Accessibility that could service some proportion of the resident transport activity system. The active mode accessibility is a non-dimensional measure of the proportion of trips that can be reached by active modes, given the population demographics of the study area. Greater active mode accessibility implies greater resilience to shocks and constraints. This paper introduces a spatial method for measuring the active mode accessibility within a selected study area, a GIS-based tool for applying the method, and presents two case studies. Model results and analysis are relevant to the redevelopment of existing areas and during the planning of new developments. The Central Christchurch study presents an Active Mode Accessibility of 100%, as there are a wide range of local facilities available for every activity. The study of Rolleston township presents a significantly lower Active Mode Accessibility of 62%, due to a lack of local facilities for many activities, and in particular, education. Although the model is still under development, it clearly indicates that it is not the distribution of facilities, but the lack of local pre-school and secondary education facilities which drastically reduces the resilience of Rolleston. The high facility density of the central city, for all activities, indicates that the residents of the central city area are extremely resilient to both fuel price shocks and constraints.

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