57 results for Working or discussion paper, 2000

  • School Leaving, Labour Market and Tertiary Education Choices of Young Adults: An Economic Analysis Utilising The 1977-1995 Christchurch Health and Development Surveys

    Maani, Sholeh (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    Utilising evidence from a longitudinal data set of young adults in New Zealand, this study examines the determinants of school leaving and labour supply behaviour of young adults at ages 16 and 18. The data set employed (the Christchurch Health and Development Survey) includes a number of variables, from birth to age 18, not commonly available in economic data sets. The analysis uses binary choice models to examine the effect of ability factors and household economic constraints on the choice to remain at secondary school beyond post-compulsory levels at age 16. The study further uses binary and multinomial choice models to examine the determinants of participation in tertiary education, as opposed to engaging in labour supply, or unemployment at age 18. The study finally examines the determinants of the type of tertiary institution attended.

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  • Agency Theory Meets Social Capital: The Failure of the 1984-91 New Zealand Economic Revolution

    Hazledine, Tim (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    The failure of the New Zealand Economic Revolution of 1984-91 to generate improved economic performance is puzzling and important, since the reforms enacted then have often been cited as a 'textbook' example of how to liberalise an economy, and since the preconditions for success (such as good government, secure property rights and stable capitalist institutions) were all in place, in contrast to the economies of the former Soviet bloc. This paper first documents the extent of failure, and then attempts to explain it theoretically. This is the story: The reform program can be seen as a massive application (or mis-application) of Principal/Agent Theory. The Principal is the small group of economic revolutionaries. The Agents are the people of NZ. The Principal_s sole object is economic efficiency. The Agents enjoy the fruits of efficiency, but also emjoy other things ('slack'), which conflict with efficient behaviour. The Principal introduces policies (deregulation, liberalisation, commercialisation) which raise the opportunity cost of non- efficient behaviour in both private and public sectors. Unfortunately, the Principal has the 'wrong model' of how the economy functions. Slack does not just enter Agents' utility functions, it is also an input into production, where it appears as 'Forbearance' _ the flow variable associated with the stock concept known as Social Capital (the ability of agents to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes through trusting and trustworthy behaviour). Thus, the Reforms actually reduced economic efficiency, for two reasons (1) they forced noncooperative behaviour on agents, and (2) they incurred direct costs of monitoring and enforcement to bring agents' behaviour into line with the principal's objectives. And the total welfare costs exceed the loss of economic efficiency (GDP), since disproportionately more utility-enhancing slack, or forbearance is wiped out. The prediction of increased resources devoted to transaction cost activities, in particular management, is tested in a comparison of New Zealand and Australia (which did not go through such a radical reform process). The data do indeed show a substantial increase in the number of managers in NZ, relative to Australia.

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  • Quality Versus Quantity: Rankings of Economics Departments in New Zealand

    King, Ian (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    I compare the research records of the 7 major economics departments in New Zealand, from 1990 onwards. The information, taken from the Econlit database, covers more than 500 economics journals, as of November 2000. Quality weights for the journals were taken from the study by Laband and Piette (1994). Four different departmental ranking measures were computed. The resulting ranking of departments is common to all the measures used. Auckland comes in first, followed by Victoria University of Wellington, Canterbury, Otago, Lincoln, Waikato, and Massey.

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  • Matching Foundations

    Julien, Benoit; Kennes, John; King, Ian (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    We compare equilibrium allocations in directed search models where prices are determined alternatively by posting and by competing auctions. Sellers' expected payoffs are higher when all sellers auction, but the difference in the payoffs decreases rapidly with market size and vanishes in the limit "large" economy. In this large economy, buyer and seller payoffs are different, but entry of both buyers and sellers is constrainedefficient. When sellers can choose whether to post prices or auction in the 2-buyer 2- seller case, then the equilibrium choice depends on whether or not sellers can commit. If both sellers can commit, then the dominant strategy equilibrium has both sellers auctioning. If neither seller can commit, then all possible combinations are equilibria.

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  • Private and Public Returns to Investments in Secondary and Higher Education in NZ over time: 1981- 1996

    Maani, Sholeh (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    Utilising evidence from a longitudinal data set of young adults in New Zealand, this study examines the determinants of school leaving and labour supply behaviour of young adults at ages 16 and 18. The data set employed (the Christchurch Health and Development Survey) includes a number of variables, from birth to age 18, not commonly available in economic data sets. The analysis uses binary choice models to examine the effect of ability factors and household economic constraints on the choice to remain at secondary school beyond post-compulsory levels at age 16. The study further uses binary and multinomial choice models to examine the determinants of participation in tertiary education, as opposed to engaging in labour supply, or unemployment at age 18. The study finally examines the determinants of the type of tertiary institution attended. tertiary education in the 1981-1991 period, and a stabilisation of results for males and a relative decline in the returns for females since 1991.

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  • Forecasting New Zealand's Real GDP

    Schiff, Aaron; Phillips, Peter (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    Recent time series methods are applied to the problem of forecasting New Zealand_s real GDP. Model selection is conducted within autoregressive (AR) and vector autoregressive (VAR) classes, allowing for evolution in the form of the models over time. The selections are performed using the Schwarz (1978) BIC and the Phillips-Ploberger (1996) PIC criteria. The forecasts generated by the data determined AR models and an international VAR model are found to be competitive with forecasts from fixed format models and forecasts produced by the NZIER. Two illustrations of the methodology in conditional forecasting settings are performed with the VAR models. The first provides conditional predictions of New Zealand_s real GDP when there is a future recession in the United States. The second gives conditional predictions of New Zealand_s real GDP under a variety of profiles that allow for tightening in monetary conditions by the Reserve Bank.

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  • Arts Funding in New Zealand

    Hazledine, Tim (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    Why should government fund the arts? It should not do so because it wishes to prescribe (or proscribe) what artists produce. It should fund because it wants more art more, that is, than the market (private transactions between the artist and their public) would supply if left to itself. The market falls short because the consumption of art generates 'externalities' -- benefits to third parties whose interests may not be fully taken into account in private transactions. These external effects range from culturebuilding, through the value of the higher arts as an input to the applied arts and technology, to the educative role that consumption of the arts now has on our likelihood of being able to enjoy them in the future. Public benefits generally depend on the extent of private engagement in the arts, and policy and funding should therefore be aimed at fostering engagement _ not, as at present, be directed onto the artists themselves. The paper suggests a performance-based funding system which, at a relatively low administrative cost, would encourage artists and their producers to achieve higher levels of engagement by topping up their revenues from sales or box-office. The paper sketches applications of the funding system to literature, to the lively arts, and to the problematic 'glamorous megafauna' of the arts & culture scene, which currently soak up most of the arts budget. The paper also considers how to support avant garde art, which is probably not well suited to revenue based funding.

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  • BUGS for a Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models

    Meyer, Renate; Yu, Jun (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    This paper reviews the general Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in stochastic volatility models with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. The main purpose is to illustrate the ease with which the Bayesian stochastic volatility model can now be studied routinely via BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling), a recently developed, user-friendly, and freely available software package. It is an ideal software tool for the exploratory phase of model building as any modifications of a model including changes of priors and sampling error distributions are readily realized with only minor changes of the code. BUGS automates the calculation of the full conditional posterior distributions using a model representation by directed acyclic graphs. It contains an expert system for choosing an efficient sampling method for each full conditional. Furthermore, software for convergence diagnostics and statistical summaries is available for the BUGS output. The BUGS implementation of a stochastic volatility model is illustrated using a time series of daily Pound/Dollar exchange rates.

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  • Evolution of IWI Organisations for the Management of Commercial Fisheries Assets

    Findlay, Marama (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    The following literature review is intended to provide a framework for a qualitative analysis of the factors influencing the evolution of the iwi organisations that own and manage commercial fisheries assets. The analysis will compare the empirical results with the factors that institutional economics suggests influence institutional design. The proposed research is intended to fill two gaps: firstly, it will enlarge the set of analytical tools that have been applied to understanding the development of the new iwi organisations; secondly, it will appraise a new, highly distinctive institutional form with a selection of theories from contemporary institutional economics. The paper contains an introduction to the new iwi organisations, a note on method and then surveys selected material from the institutional economics literature that seems most promising for exploring the evolution of iwi organisations. Although the paper is primarily a literature review, the notes on the new iwi organisations and research method are included to assist the explanation of how appropriate literature was selected. This stems from the view that successful research matches subject matter, method and theory. The paper closes by presenting a set of questions generated from the survey literature. which will be used to guide the fieldwork.

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  • Exact Gaussian Estimation of Continuous Time Models of The Term Structure of Interest Rates Rankings of Economics Departments in New Zealand

    Phillips, Peter; Yu, Jun (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    This paper proposes an exact Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the term structure of interest rates. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation method proposed by Nowman (1997). An empirical application to U.S. and British interest rates is given.

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  • Economic Progress and Skill Obsolescene

    Kennedy, Peter; King, Ian (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    We construct an OLG model of skill vintages with complementarities to examine skill obsolescence when individuals can choose vintages. We find that the problem of excessive progress can exist only in the absence of coordination and transfers among those currently alive. However, too little progress can occur in equilibrium, even in the presence of coordination and transfers. Moreover, allowing coordination or transfers may reduce aggregate surplus. Equilibria with too little progress can take the form of either cycles or stagnation. The introduction of outside debt can eliminate the cyclical equilibrium, leading to a Paretoimproving increase in the rate of progress.

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  • Trade Liberalisation and Factor Returns

    Kao, Tina (2000)

    Working or discussion paper
    The University of Auckland Library

    This paper analyses the effects of New Zealand's trade liberalisation on its factor markets. Although the consensus among most existing empirical studies is that there is little contribution of trade in increasing wage inequality, disagreement remains regarding the appropriate methodology. Recognising the importance of taking account of general equihbrium considerations, this paper follows the factor content of trade formulation proposed by Deardorff and Staiger (1988) and Deardorff and Lattimore (1999a, b). It is found that, in contrast to the income distribution widening effect, Ncw Zealand's trade reforms have reduced skill premiums when the comparison is made between 1986 and 1996. This result is consistent with Deardorff and Lattimore (1999a, b). Furthermore Data of personal income distribution by qualifications are investigated. From 1986 to 1996, a tendency of income dstribution widening is found. If the relative factor returns and personal income distribution by qualifications are hlghly correlated, it suggests that trade liberatisation has helped reduce income inequality while somc other factors have led to the widening of the income distribution.

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  • International migration in New Zealand: Context, components and policy issues

    Bedford, Richard; Ho, Elsie; Lidgard, Jacqueline (2000-10)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    This paper explores Aotearoa/New Zealand’s distinctive heritage as both a ‘traditional land of immigration’ as well as a ‘country of emigration’, with particular reference to contemporary policy issues and research initiatives. An underlying theme of the argument is the need for an approach which takes account of all types of movement into and out of the country when researching immigration, both as a process and as a policy domain.

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  • Using compression to identify acronyms in text

    Yeates, Stuart Andrew; Bainbridge, David; Witten, Ian H. (2000-01)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    Text mining is about looking for patterns in natural language text, and may be defined as the process of analyzing text to extract information from it for particular purposes. In previous work, we claimed that compression is a key technology for text mining, and backed this up with a study that showed how particular kinds of lexical tokens - names, dates, locations, etc. - can be identified and located in running text, using compression models to provide the leverage necessary to distinguish different token types.

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  • Text categorization using compression models

    Frank, Eibe; Chui, Chang; Witten, Ian H. (2000-01)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    Text categorization, or the assignment of natural language texts to predefined categories based on their content, is of growing importance as the volume of information available on the internet continues to overwhelm us. The use of predefined categories implies a “supervised learning” approach to categorization, where already-classified articles which effectively define the categories are used as “training data” to build a model that can be used for classifying new articles that comprise the “test data”. This contrasts with “unsupervised” learning, where there is no training data and clusters of like documents are sought amongst the test articles. With supervised learning, meaningful labels (such as keyphrases) are attached to the training documents, and appropriate labels can be assigned automatically to test documents depending on which category they fall into.

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  • KEA: Practical automatic keyphrase extraction

    Witten, Ian H.; Paynter, Gordon W.; Frank, Eibe; Gutwin, Carl; Nevill-Manning, Craig G. (2000-03)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    Keyphrases provide semantic metadata that summarize and characterize documents. This paper describes Kea, an algorithm for automatically extracting keyphrases from text. Kea identifies candidate keyphrases using lexical methods, calculates feature values for each candidate, and uses a machine learning algorithm to predict which candidates are good keyphrases. The machine learning scheme first builds a prediction model using training documents with known keyphrases, and then uses the model to find keyphrases in new documents. We use a large test corpus to evaluate Kea’s effectiveness in terms of how many author-assigned keyphrases are correctly identified. The system is simple, robust, and publicly available.

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  • µ-Charts and Z: hows, whys and wherefores

    Reeve, Greg; Reeves, Steve (2000-03)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    In this paper we show, by a series of examples, how the µ-chart formalism can be translated into Z. We give reasons for why this is an interesting and sensible thing to do and what it might be used for.

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  • Correlation-based feature selection of discrete and numeric class machine learning

    Hall, Mark A. (2000-05)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    Algorithms for feature selection fall into two broad categories: wrappers that use the learning algorithm itself to evaluate the usefulness of features and filters that evaluate features according to heuristics based on general characteristics of the data. For application to large databases, filters have proven to be more practical than wrappers because they are much faster. However, most existing filter algorithms only work with discrete classification problems. This paper describes a fast, correlation-based filter algorithm that can be applied to continuous and discrete problems. The algorithm often out-performs the well-known ReliefF attribute estimator when used as a preprocessing step for naive Bayes, instance-based learning, decision trees, locally weighted regression, and model trees. It performs more feature selection than ReliefF does-reducing the data dimensionality by fifty percent in most cases. Also, decision and model trees built from the preprocessed data are often significantly smaller.

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  • A comparative transaction log analysis of two computing collections

    Mahoui, Malika; Cunningham, Sally Jo (2000-07)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    Transaction logs are invaluable sources of fine-grained information about users’ search behavior. This paper compares the searching behavior of users across two WWW-accessible digital libraries: the New Zealand Digital Library’s Computer Science Technical Reports collection (CSTR), and the Karlsruhe Computer Science Bibliographies (CSBIB) collection. Since the two collections are designed to support the same type of users-researchers/students in computer science a comparative log analysis is likely to uncover common searching preferences for that user group. The two collections differ in their content, however; the CSTR indexes a full text collection, while the CSBIB is primarily a bibliographic database. Differences in searching behavior between the two systems may indicate the effect of differing search facilities and content type.

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  • Hierarchical document clustering using automatically extracted keyphrases

    Jones, Steve; Mahoui, Malika (2000-10)

    Working or discussion paper
    University of Waikato

    In this paper we present a technique for automatically generating hierarchical clusters of documents. Our technique exploits document keyphrases as features of the document space to support clustering. In fact, we cluster keyphrases rather than documents themselves and then associate documents with keyphrase clusters. We discuss alternative measures of similarity between ‘soft-clusters’ which seed Ward’s hierarchical clustering algorithm, and present the resulting cluster hierarchies that we have produced for a large collection of scientific technical reports. We analyse the effect of the alternative similarity measures and suggest improvement to our technique.

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